Dangote Refinery: When it Rains it Pours

By Tahir Ibrahim Tahir Talban Bauchi.

When it rains it pours is the best phrase to describe what is happening to the Dangote refinery, as it grapples with one challenge after the other, especially as it prepares for the take-off of the PMS component of its refining processes. Dangote refinery is the largest investment by a Nigerian in Nigeria in perhaps our entire history. The investment is valued at $20 billion. The land purchase alone cost $100 million, with another $420 million spent on revamping and reconstruction of the swamp to make it viable for the construction of the refinery. That is close to a trillion naira in land preparation and pre-construction expenditure. A port had to be built to accommodate the size of the refinery's equipment and parts, including building a power plant with the capacity of supplying 1500 MW of electricity. Also, a highway had to be constructed for the delivery of equipments from the port to the refinery, along with the development of 125 kms of pipeline for the delivery of crude oil to the refinery. The conceptualisation of the project was done over 15 years ago, with its construction taking atleast 7 to 8 years. Industry experts worldwide had warned Alh. Aliko Dangote that it was a crazy project, he admits. He did see the crazy it was when he started, as the challenges ballooned in number and size. Indeed he was 'crazier' enough to accomplish its development. The real crazy now are the impediments and bottlenecks he is facing, as he battles to actualize the aspiration of solving Nigeria's perennial problem of importing petroleum products, as an oil producing country.

At first it was the International Oil Companies, IOCs, refusing to sell crude to the Dangote refinery, or selling at about $6 more than global prices. The NUPRC, Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission had to wade in to secure oil supply for the refinery. Then oil dealers were at it, charging as high as $4 as agency fees, again, against global practices. The government had to step up against the IOCs and it seemed that it was a resolved issue. Then came a fire incident in the refinery which has caused atleast a month's delay in the production of PMS, known as petrol, which is what the Nigerian populace is earnestly yearning for, from the refinery. The entry of Dangote refinery into the diesel market has caused for a reduction of diesel prices by about 60%. This has definitely upset the diesel importation industry and has bloated the number of individuals and cabals coming against the Dangote refinery. Despite all these challenges, the refinery seemed to be on course to deliver petrol to the Nigerian market. But the 'crazy' in the industry has probably just set in again, and said, not so fast Dangote!

Very scathing remarks, uncharacteristic of an umpire, were made by the CEO of the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency, NMDPRA, Engr. Farouk Ahmed, which cast aspersions on the standards, productivity and even the viability of the Dangote refinery. He castigated the Sulphur content of the diesel from Dangote refinery, putting it at between 650-1200 ppm. A visit by the Speaker of the House of Representatives on a fact finding mission confirmed that it was at 87.6 ppm. Dangote clarified that they were on their way to declaring a content of 10 ppm. Further testing from other filling stations proved that Dangote refinery's diesel was far more superior in sulphur content. There's also the other parameter of the flashpoint, with Dangote's diesel recording 90° celsius, compared to other marketers whose product recorded between 40° to 70° celsius. The recommended standard is 66° celsius, further proving that Dangote's diesel was the best in the market. The Dangote lab for the testing was accredited by the same NMDPRA in March, 2024. NMDPRA knows that as a new refinery, the earliest stages of production would definitely have a high sulphur content compared to subsequent or continued production.

The CEO of NMDPRA also said that the refinery was at 45% completion. As a regulator, he is well aware of the stages involved in the completion of the refinery, where all the products it is designed to produce, can be actually processed and produced by the refinery. For now, two major products are set to be available to the Nigerian market, with one already in use. It is supposed to be in stages. So what was the statement meant to achieve? He also called the refinery a monopoly, while infact, several other modular refineries have been licensed, with quite a number in production. He lamented that Dangote wanted fuel imports stopped. But isn't that the desire of every Nigerian? Well of course minus those that make a kill, importing petroleum products, killing our local refineries. NNPC Ltd. says atleast one of their refineries would be producing petroleum products by September this year. In a market where there are multiple producers, how does Dangote refinery amount to a monopoly? He also complained that Dangote's refinery is a threat to the energy security of the country. Under the importation regime, we have suffered 3 fuel scarcities in the last 6 months alone. So where is the security in importation? Are we not better off with a steady supply from Dangote? Afterall the refinery is building a storage capacity to have almost a billion litres of petrol in storage.

The CEO's remarks are in bad light and look like an attempt to demarket the Dangote refinery. Unfortunately it has backfired and has pitched the Nigerian people to stand solidly behind Dangote. It is rare for the people to rally behind a super rich man like Aliko, but what the refinery stands for, is much larger than Aliko Dangote. It stands for the industrialisation of Africa. It stands to change our fortunes, in terms of the hardship and exploitation that we have suffered, over a product in our backyard, that has refused to be available in our front yard. Those comments paint the CEO of NMDPRA as one against the success story of the refinery, and the solutions it stands to bring to one of our biggest problems. The gains are too numerous to mention. From fx gains, to employment, to ending scarcities and black marketing.. there are far too many merits to this project, than the cries of monopoly and what have you. We'd rather be monopolised by our own citizen, than continue to be the dumping ground of oil dealers around the world, that have made our country their cash cow, milking us as they please. It looks like Dangote's fuel will be cheaper, just like his diesel, and some dealers don't want that to happen. With those statements by the umpire, investors are being pushed away. Steel investments by the Dangote group have now been abandoned due to those unsavory statements. What does it tell other investors around the world about us?

Tahir is Talban Bauchi.